India: Reeling Under Global Warming

Climate change has been a major concern since man started to make life easier and it’s a known and oft stressed concept in most of the conventions and protocols. It is known to have brought widespread misery and huge economic loss worldwide, severely disturbing public health, agriculture and natural resources. This scenario might reach a stratospheric height if we maintain our current lifestyles and propel greenhouse gases into the air. As our mother earth fumes further, we may face days of drastic weather changes thus affecting agriculture and causing water scarcity and pandemics.

The world today faces two major challenges to deal effectively with the situation. The first is to reduce carbon dioxide emissions drastically by moving to renewable technologies. The second is to equip ourselves to deal with the impacts of climate change that are already inevitable due to existing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and cannot be averted even if the world stops emitting carbon dioxide immediately.

In developing countries like India, climate change could represent an additional stress on ecological and socioeconomic systems that are already facing tremendous pressures due to rapid urbanization, industrialization and economic development. With its huge and growing population, a 7,500-km long, densely-populated and low-lying coastline, and an economy that is closely tied to its natural resource base, India is considerably vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The share of agriculture in India’s GDP is around 19 percent, supporting a much larger share of the total population. According to a national survey, the proportion of the rural population who are self-employed in agriculture constitutes 38 percent while those who work as agricultural laborers constitute 31 percent. Thus, the proportion of rural population dependent on agriculture is around 70 percent. The economic lot of India’s population, therefore, depends heavily on agriculture.

Extreme temperatures and heat spells have already become the norm in northern India, often causing death. Medical science suggests that the rise in temperature and change in humidity will adversely affect human health in India. Heat stress could result in heat cramps, heat exhaustion and heat stroke, and damage physiological functions, metabolic processes and immune systems. Climate change has had an effect on the monsoons too. India is heavily dependent on the m o n s o o n to meet its agricultural and water needs, and also for protecting and propagating its rich biodiversity. Scientists at II T Delhi have monitored subtle changes in monsoon rain patterns. According to their study, India will experience a decline in summer rainfall by the 2050s, which accounts for almost 70 percent of the total annual rainfall over India and is crucial to Indian agriculture. Relatively small climatic changes can cause large water resource problems, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions such as northwest India. This will have an impact on agriculture, drinking water and on the generation of hydroelectric power.

In India, the arrival and performance of the monsoon plays a significant role in agriculture, as most of the states in the country largely depend upon rainfall for irrigation. Any change in rainfall patterns poses a serious threat to agriculture, and therefore to the country’s economy and food security. It is predicted by scientists that global warming could make this already fickle weather system volatile. Agriculture will be adversely affected not only by an increase or decrease in the overall amounts of rainfall, but also by shifts in the timing of the rainfall. Pre-monsoon showers in May and June are vital to ensure adequate moisture in fields for rice crops. Worse still are the coastal regions of Gujarat and Maharashtra where inundation and salinization pose a major hazard. Changes in the soil condition, pests and weeds brought by climate change will also inversely affect agriculture in India. For instance, the amount of moisture in the soil will be affected by changes in factors such as precipitation, runoff and evaporation.

The plight of Indian farmers are flashed across every news channel as India’s monsoon rains have failed to arrive and farmers in the worst hit regions resort to suicide to stave off the huge loans they have taken out. Food prices are set to escalate and the predicament of the country’s poorest farmers are becoming a big concern.

Apart from monsoon rains, India uses perennial rivers, which originate and depend on glacial meltwater in the Hindukush and Himalayan ranges. Since the melting season coincides with the summer monsoon season, any intensification of the monsoon is likely to contribute to flood disasters in the Himalayan catchments. Rising temperatures will also contribute to the raising of the snowline, reducing the capacity of this natural reservoir and increasing the risk of flash floods during the wet season. Increased temperatures are expected to impact agricultural production. Higher temperatures reduce the total duration of a crop cycle by inducing early flowering, thus shortening the “grain fill” period. The shorter the crop cycle, the lower the yield per hectare.

A trend of sea level rise of 1 cm per decade has been recorded along the Indian coast. The research also claims sea level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water in the Indian Ocean, which is expected to be about 25-40 cm by 2050. This could inundate low lying areas, drown coastal marshes and wetlands, erode beaches, exacerbate flooding and increase the salinity of rivers, bays and aquifers. The Delta belt will be threatened by flooding, erosion and salt intrusion. Loss of coastal mangroves will have an impact on fisheries. The major delta area of the Ganga, Brahmaputra and Indus rivers, which have large populations reliant on river line resources will be affected by changes in water regimes, salt water intrusions and land loss.

Alongside these forecasters of doom, are “cooler-headed coalitions” who take a more sober view of the climate. There are some who think that global warming may not continue indefinitely. The phenomenon we are experiencing is merely a phase of “climate change” that is unlikely to follow a linear trend indefinitely. Whether the “global warming” school of thought or the “cooler heads” are right, only time can tell, but it remains that all living things will be called upon to brave an epoch of unprecedented suffering and adjustment.

Not many in the country had even heard the word tsunami till it struck. The situation might be better in comparison with “global warming” and “climate change,” but that is about all. India is as unprepared to meet the challenge of global warming, which is on its way, as it was the hour before the tsunami struck. Unless the wheels of the state turn quickly, the failure of nature could well turn into a man-made tragedy.